2. What if solar module efficiency reached 50%?
A step-change to 50% module efficiency (nameplate, under standard test conditions) would be transformational across the solar value chain—compressing land and material intensity by ~40–60%, sharply reducing balance‑of‑system (BOS) costs per watt, and unlocking new application spaces (high‑density rooftops, BIPV, vehicle-integrated PV, agrivoltaics with higher light throughput). At the grid level, it would accelerate PV’s share of generation , bring forward breakevens versus unabated gas and coal in more hours of the year, and redefine storage sizing due to higher midday energy density. Strategically, the winners will be those who (1) master high‑efficiency cell architectures and bankability, (2) retool BOS and EPC practices around higher power density, and (3) align policy/standards and financing to capture the accelerated learning curve. Order-of-magnitude impacts (illustrative): Area compression: ~50% efficiency vs ~22% baseline → ~55–60% less area per watt DC. BOS savings: Rack...