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Showing posts with the label What if

What if storage cost reached below $10/kWh ? [21]

Utility‑scale battery capex clusters around $125/kWh all‑in (global auctions as of Oct’25), translating to LCOS ≈ $65/MWh for 4‑hour systems; standalone LCOS ranges in the US are still triple digits in many cases, although sharply down in 2025. Pack costs average $108/kWh (global) and $70/kWh for stationary storage in China‑linked segments. Long‑duration chemistries (iron‑air) target ~$20/kWh for energy capacity; sodium‑ion could plausibly reach $40/kWh at cell level with scale. Pumped storage is scaling rapidly in India. All of that sets the baseline before we explore a $10/kWh world. If fully installed energy storage (not just cell cost) fell below $10/kWh , the cost of shifting electricity would become negligible relative to generation. Solar and wind could be overbuilt and time‑shifted ubiquitously; thermal peakers and new gas CCGTs would be replaced by solar+storage, wind+storage, and hybrid portfolios; transmission expansion would focus on strategic corridors , while d...

What if AI predicted equipment failures with 100% accuracy ? [20]

Imagine an electricity system where every impending asset failure is known in advance with perfect precision —time, location, cause, and cascading effects—across transmission, distribution, generation, and behind‑the‑meter devices. In such a world, outages from equipment defects disappear, capital plans re‑optimize around true residual life , spares and crews arrive “just in time,” and regulators recalibrate reliability incentives from SAIDI/SAIFI to assurance of supply under probabilistic risk that excludes random equipment faults. The International Energy Agency (IEA) already frames digitalization as essential to grid reliability and cost control; with perfect prediction, the gains would multiply—reducing outage minutes, deferring capex, and accelerating the clean‑energy transition by unlocking grid headroom without overbuilding . [iea.org] , [iea.org] Evidence from real utilities shows that even non‑perfect predictive analytics deliver 10–20% OPEX savings and 40–60% capex optim...

What if blockchain handled energy trading at the consumer level ? [19]

If the  Consumer-level energy trading—neighbors buying and selling rooftop‑solar kilowatt‑hours directly—has moved from concept to pilot reality in several markets (Brooklyn, NY; Australia; Singapore; and India). Blockchain adds a secure, auditable, near‑real‑time settlement layer that can scale local markets, automate smart‑contracted trades, and provide granular carbon provenance— if the metering, market design, and regulation align. [power-technology.com] , [microgridk...wledge.com] , [ieeexplore.ieee.org] In India, the building blocks are coming together: RDSS smart metering is ramping, state regulators (e.g., UPERC and DERC ) have issued peer‑to‑peer (P2P) guidelines that explicitly allow blockchain platforms, and pilots (e.g., Uttar Pradesh , Delhi) have demonstrated feasibility and consumer value. The near‑term prize is localized balancing and cheaper, greener power with traceability; the long‑term prize is a flexible distribution system where prosumers, communities...

What if outage restoration was fully automated ? [18]

Fully automated outage restoration—where the grid detects faults, isolates them, reconfigures feeders, and restores service without human intervention —is no longer sci‑fi. Utilities are already deploying FLISR (Fault Location, Isolation and Service Restoration) on top of ADMS/OMS platforms, integrating AMI meter signals, and augmenting restoration with autonomous inspections (e.g., drones) and microgrid islanding . Evidence from vendors and case studies shows seconds‑to‑minutes restorations, 50%+ reductions in customers interrupted and minutes lost, and marked SAIDI/SAIFI improvement. [selinc.com] , [blog.se.com] Globally, security of supply is under stress amid extreme weather and rapidly changing load and generation; operators are investing in digital grids and resilience mechanisms. Automation is a cost‑effective lever to contain outage impacts and accelerate recovery. [nbcconnecticut.com] , [aemc.gov.au] Our position: End‑to‑end automated restoration is feasible today for...