What if offshore wind farms became cheaper than coal plants? [03]
If offshore wind’s levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) were to fall below that of new coal plants—consistently and across major markets—the power sector’s economics would reset. The tipping point is not far-fetched: recent analyses show offshore wind costs stabilizing and expected to decline, while coal’s LCOE remains elevated and sensitive to financing, fuel, and compliance costs. In 2024–25, global evidence already indicates renewables are the cheapest source of new electricity in most markets, with offshore wind approaching parity even after a period of macro headwinds. [irena.org] , [lazard.com] Bottom line: Cheaper offshore wind would catalyze five shifts: (1) accelerated coal retirements and moratoria on new coal builds; (2) rapid reconfiguration of transmission planning for coastal grids; (3) reallocation of capital toward offshore supply chains and ports; (4) policy rewiring—auctions, permitting, and market design—to unlock scale; and (5) workforce and community transition p...