What if HVDC lines became standard globally? [13]

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If High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) replaced Alternating Current (AC) as the default for new long‑distance and cross‑border transmission, the world would gain capacity, controllability, and interconnection—accelerating renewables integration, offshore build‑out, and regional power trade. But the shift would also strain supply chains, permitting, and converter‑station skillsets, with investment profiles moving from cheaper lines to costly terminals and cables. Europe’s TYNDP and Offshore Roadmap foresee hundreds of GW of new cross‑border and offshore capacity—a scale that implicitly relies on HVDC technology; China is already deploying ±800 kV UHVDC corridors at altitude and across deserts; India has ±800 kV multi‑terminal HVDC in service and a new Ladakh HVDC corridor planned. Together, these real‑world programs show HVDC as technically mature and economically justified for long distances, large capacities, subsea/underground routes, and asynchronous interconnections. [entsoe.eu], [entsoe.eu], [chinadaily.com.cn], [english.www.gov.cn], [hitachienergy.com], [pib.gov.in]

Our thesis: making HVDC “standard” (for the right use cases) would (i) unlock bulk renewables transfer and offshore hubs, (ii) harden grids via power‑flow controllability and asynchronous interties, and (iii) lower losses over long distances—provided regulators shift planning frameworks, OEM capacity expands, and system operators standardize grid‑forming and protection practices. The prize: faster decarbonization with lower system costs if cross‑border capacity expands on schedule. The risk: bottlenecks in transformers, semiconductors, cables, and converters—already flagged by the IEA in its transmission supply chain work. [iea.org], [greentechlead.com]

Why HVDC, and why now?

HVDC’s core advantages are well known: lower line/cable losses over long distances, narrower ROWs for overhead bipoles, precise power flow control, and the ability to connect asynchronous grids and long subsea cables—critical for offshore wind, intercontinental interconnectors, and bulk transfers from remote renewables. [electricalje.com], [pes-psrc.org]

  • Offshore & subsea: Europe’s plan to integrate ~354–496 GW of offshore renewables by 2050 hinges on HVDC to connect hybrid offshore grids and cross‑border hubs; ENTSO‑E’s ONDP and Offshore Roadmap lay out corridors and the associated frequency control and grid‑forming needs in power‑electronics‑dominated systems. [entsoe.eu], [eepublicdo...indows.net]
  • Cross‑border interconnectors: Projects like North Sea Link (UK–Norway, 1.4 GW, ±525 kV, 720 km) show HVDC’s role in balancing hydropower and wind across markets; it was fully commissioned in October 2021 and is now a backbone of flexible exchange. [en.wikipedia.org], [hitachienergy.com]
  • Long‑haul land corridors: China’s ±800 kV UHVDC lines transmit tens of TWh annually over 1,900–2,300 km, moving hydropower/solar/wind from western bases to coastal loads—demonstrating HVDC’s bulk capability and environmental benefits (coal avoidance). [chinadaily.com.cn], [english.www.gov.cn]

Meanwhile, the IEA shows grid expansion urgency: transmission and distribution length must grow >20% by 2030, with annual grid investment roughly doubling to ~$600 bn, and component supply chains already under strain—context in which HVDC’s controllability can maximize network utility, but also competes for scarce transformers, semiconductors, and cables. [greentechlead.com], [iea.org]

What “HVDC as standard” could deliver

1) System flexibility and resilience
HVDC links act as controllable “power valves”—mitigating loop flows, optimizing dispatch across zones, and enabling black‑start and grid‑forming capabilities when using VSC‑HVDC (modular multilevel converters). As conventional inertia declines, ENTSO‑E prioritizes frequency control, ramping harmonization, and dynamic stability in offshore/HVDC‑dominated systems—codifying the operational shift we would need everywhere. [eepublicdo...indows.net]

2) Large‑scale renewables integration

  • Offshore wind: multi‑country hubs in North Sea/Baltic will rely on VSC terminals to collect and route power; ENTSO‑E’s ONDP translates Member State targets into transmission corridors and equipment needs. [entsoe.eu]
  • Remote onshore renewables: China’s corridors and India’s ±800 kV links (e.g., Raigarh–Pugalur, 6 GW) move bulk clean power across vast distances with lower losses and high controllability. [hitachienergy.com]

3) Reduced losses and space
For very long routes, HVDC outperforms HVAC due to reactive‑power free transmission and no skin/capacitance effects, especially for cables. HVDC corridors often need one third the substation footprint—an important urban and land-use point demonstrated in India’s ±800 kV deployments. [electricalje.com], [hitachi.com]

4) Market integration and security
Interconnectors like North Sea Link evidence mutual benefits—sharing surplus wind/hydro, boosting resilience, and reducing fossil‑generation. Europe’s TYNDP notes each euro invested in transmission yields ~€2 in system cost savings, implying HVDC interconnectors could pay for themselves through congestion relief and balancing. [entsoe.eu]

What would have to change (policy, planning, operations)

A) Planning doctrine and cost‑benefit frameworks

  • Use‑case standardization: HVDC becomes standard for (i) >600–800 km overhead bulk transfers, (ii) long subsea/underground links, (iii) asynchronous interties, (iv) offshore hybrid hubs. Regulators embed these thresholds in TYNDP‑like and national plans. [entsoe.eu], [entsoe.eu]
  • Whole‑system valuation: Include controllability, loss reduction, avoided grid reinforcements, and security benefits in CBA, not just line capex—consistent with IEA’s finding that grid investments may lift tariffs but reduce total system costs via avoided congestion and flexibility. [greentechlead.com]

B) Standards & operations

  • Grid‑forming VSC: Agree common specs for fault ride‑through, inertia emulation, frequency and voltage support, and ramping across HVDC assets (ENTSO‑E Offshore Roadmap priority set). [eepublicdo...indows.net]
  • Protection and EMS integration: Update AC protection practices for VSC interfaces and harmonics; IEEE/PSRC guidance already details impacts on local AC schemes. [pes-psrc.org]

C) Supply chain & delivery capacity
The IEA’s transmission supply chain work highlights lead‑time inflation for transformers and key components; OEMs (cables, converter valves, semiconductors) must expand capacity, and countries should implement long‑term procurement and permitting reforms to meet timelines. [iea.org]

Global evidence: HVDC is already the de facto standard in key segments

  • Europe (offshore & cross‑border):

    • North Sea Link (UK–Norway): 1.4 GW, 720 km, in service since Oct 2021; HVDC Light converters enable bidirectional trade. [en.wikipedia.org], [hitachienergy.com]
    • Germany’s SuedLink/SuedOstLink/A‑Nord: ±525 kV underground corridors (2×2 GW systems), installation underway; completion targets 2026–2029. These projects embody HVDC as standard for long underground bulk transfer. [nkt.com], [hitachienergy.com]
    • ENTSO‑E’s draft TYNDP 2024/25: calls for +108 GW cross‑border capacity by 2040 and +224 GW by 2050; HVDC is essential to achieve this scale. [entsoe.eu]

  • China (UHVDC backbones):

  • India (multi‑terminal ±800 kV & new HVDC):

    • Raigarh–Pugalur–Thrissur: 6 GW, ±800 kV bipole + 320 kV VSC extension; first pole energized in 2020; designed to move bulk power north↔south with land savings (~244 km² footprint avoidance vs AC). [hitachi.com], [nsenergybusiness.com]
    • Ladakh GEC Phase‑II (ISTS): 5 GW + 5 GW terminals at Pang & Kaithal, ~480 km HVDC line planned, to evacuate 13 GW RE by FY 2029–30; the Government mandated VSC‑HVDC and EHVAC segments, with POWERGRID as IA. [pib.gov.in]

Economics: where HVDC beats HVAC—and where it doesn’t

Rule of thumb: HVDC is superior for very long distances, high capacities, subsea/underground, and asynchronous ties. HVAC wins for short/medium overhead reinforcements where reactive power and stability can be managed.

  • Cost structure: HVDC’s lines/cables can be cost‑competitive on long routes, but terminal stations (converters) add large capex; several benchmarks show HVDC overtakes HVAC economically beyond ~600–800 km overhead or for long subsea cables. [electricalje.com], [electrical...portal.com]
  • System value: ENTSO‑E projects >€2 in system cost savings per €1 invested—mainly congestion relief and flexibility. HVDC’s controllability improves transfer capability without proportionate ROW expansion. [entsoe.eu]
  • Tariff impacts: IEA notes grid investments raise tariff components short‑term, but net savings accrue via avoided curtailment and market integration; examples from National Grid UK support the thesis of customer savings via system efficiency. [greentechlead.com]

India focus: what a HVDC‑standard world means for us

1) North–South and East–West HVDC spines
India already operates multi‑terminal ±800 kV (NE‑Agra; Raigarh–Pugalur). Extending HVDC spines to western RE bases and eastern hydro/PSP sites would provide controllability and asynchronous buffers against regional disturbances. The Ladakh HVDC is a template for RE evacuation across challenging terrain. [hitachienergy.com], [pib.gov.in]

2) Offshore wind phase‑up & coastal reliability
As India ramps offshore wind on the Gujarat/Tamil Nadu coasts, VSC‑HVDC becomes the default for long subsea export—mirroring the North Sea model, with coordinated planning akin to ENTSO‑E’s ONDP. [entsoe.eu]

3) Market coupling & interregional trade
HVDC interties facilitate price convergence and power‑flow control across coupled markets; Europe’s experience shows cross‑border HVDC can unlock welfare gains (TYNDP). India’s ongoing market coupling reforms and ancillary services evolution would benefit from HVDC’s controllability, reducing unscheduled flows and strengthening frequency management. [entsoe.eu]

4) Industrial policy & supply chain
India should leverage domestic strengths (POWERGRID/BHEL) while partnering with global OEMs (Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, NKT, Prysmian) to build converter and cable manufacturing bases—de‑risking lead times flagged by the IEA’s supply chain analysis. [iea.org]

Risks and how to mitigate them

  • Supply chain bottlenecks (transformers, semiconductors, cables): Adopt framework agreements, multi‑year visibility, and domestic capacity building; coordinate with OEMs to sequence corridor deliveries—IEA stresses long‑term procurement mechanisms. [iea.org]
  • Skill gaps (converter station O&M, protection): Create a national HVDC academy; adopt IEEE/PSRC best practices for VSC protection and EMS integration. [pes-psrc.org]
  • Operational complexity (grid‑forming, frequency support): Align with ENTSO‑E technical priorities (inertia emulation, ramping, dynamic stability) and codify them in Indian grid codes for VSC‑HVDC. [eepublicdo...indows.net]
  • Permitting & social license: Underground/subsea choices will ease siting but increase capex; adopt whole‑system CBA and transparent consultation—as in Europe’s TYNDP processes. [acer.europa.eu]

A pragmatic roadmap (2026–2032)

Phase 1: “Adopt where HVDC is clearly superior” (0–24 months)

  • Mandate HVDC for >800 km bulk corridors, offshore exports, asynchronous interties.
  • Launch HVDC standards pack (grid‑forming specs; ramping; protection interfaces) referencing ENTSO‑E Offshore Roadmap & IEEE PSRC. [eepublicdo...indows.net], [pes-psrc.org]
  • Stand up supply chain task force in line with IEA’s Building the Future Transmission Grid. [iea.org]

Phase 2: “Scale offshore & long‑haul corridors” (24–60 months)

  • Accelerate Ladakh ISTS HVDC execution; expand HVDC spines to western RE clusters; prepare coastal VSC terminals for offshore wind phases. [pib.gov.in]
  • Pilot multi‑terminal HVDC nodes (akin to Raigarh–Pugalur–Thrissur) for meshed flexibility. [nsenergybusiness.com]

Phase 3: “Integrate markets & operations” (60–84 months)

  • Link HVDC assets to market coupling—using controllable flows for congestion relief; embed ancillary services (synthetic inertia, fast frequency response) in contracts for HVDC/VSC converters. [entsoe.eu]

What would success look like?

  • Higher renewable utilization, lower curtailment, and fewer congestion hours on HVDC corridors.
  • Improved frequency stability and lower ACE thanks to HVDC controllability and grid‑forming support.
  • Cross‑border and interregional price convergence with measurable welfare gains (à la ENTSO‑E TYNDP). [entsoe.eu]
  • Predictable delivery—OEM lead times stabilized via long‑term procurement and local capacity growth per IEA guidance. [iea.org]

Bottom line

HVDC is already the standard where it should be—long, large, offshore, and asynchronous. Making it the global default for those use cases (not all reinforcements) would accelerate the energy transition: Europe’s offshore ambition, China’s UHVDC backbone, and India’s RE corridors provide proof points. The shift requires policy clarity, grid‑forming standards, and supply‑chain scaling—but the payoff in system flexibility, decarbonization, and total‑cost savings is compelling. In short: HVDC everywhere it makes sense, HVAC where it still does—with planning tools, market rules, and factories tuned to deliver at pace.

Selected sources:

IEA: Building the Future Transmission Grid; Global Energy Review 2025; grid investment/tariff impacts.
ENTSO‑E: TYNDP 2024/25, Offshore Roadmap, and ONDP (offshore corridors).
Europe projects: North Sea Link (UK–Norway, 1.4 GW, 720 km, ±525 kV); SuedLink/SuedOstLink/A‑Nord (Germany, ±525 kV underground).
China UHVDC: ±800 kV projects at altitude and across regions; new VSC‑based UHVDC.
India HVDC: Raigarh–Pugalur–Thrissur multi‑terminal ±800 kV/320 kV; Ladakh GEC Phase‑II (ISTS) with VSC‑HVDC.
Technical & economics: HVDC vs HVAC comparisons; IEEE PSRC VSC protection. 

References: 

[iea.org], [iea.blob.c...indows.net], [greentechlead.com] [entsoe.eu], [eepublicdo...indows.net], [entsoe.eu] [en.wikipedia.org], [hitachienergy.com], [nkt.com], [hitachienergy.com] [chinadaily.com.cn], [english.www.gov.cn], [hitachienergy.com] [nsenergybusiness.com], [hitachi.com], [pib.gov.in] [electricalje.com], [electrical...portal.com], [pes-psrc.org]

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